20 credits at level HE7
This module is intended to introduce the topic of forecasting and the different ways in which we can approach it.
The module will help business professionals to be equipped with forecasting tools that they can use in any kind of business and how it needs to be optimised to suit various conditions.
The module will also introduce how SPSS and Excel software can be used to create models from existing data to be used for forecasting
Principles to include intentions into forecasting
Role playing for forecasts
Expert opinions in forecasting
Customer input in con-joint analysis
Judgemental bootstrapping – role of expert systems
Analogies to forecast unknown variables
Statistical forecasting and Extrapolation
Ruled based forecasting
Integrating and adjusting by combining forecasts
A variety of teaching and learning methods including; lectures, seminars and presentation, practical work, e-learning (Web-CT), workshops, tutorials, study groups, videos, independent study, directed reading and research are employed to develop the knowledge and skills of a diverse group of learners.
Typical allocation of working hours would be:
Formal Lectures 21
Assignment Work 60
Directed Reading 38
Background Research 60
Total Hours: 200
The Learning outcomes will be assessed through coursework reports, presentations, and an examination.
when you have successfully completed this module you will:
to demonstrate that you have achieved the learning outcome you will:
|1.||Understand the need for forecasting||Explain Requirement to forecast data for future|
|2.||Explain different types of forecasting methods||Types of forecasting techniques and scenarios where they fit|
|3.||Apply forecasting techniques to create models to predict future data||Evidence of application of forecasting techniques to a given scenario|
|4.||Demonstrate optimisation of forecasting||Demonstrate changes that have to be made to account for various other factors|
Your achievement of the learning outcomes for this module will be tested as follows:
|Description||a 3500 to 4000 word essay on analysis of historical data to predict data over the next five year period by using forecasting techniques.||A two hour examination where students answer any two out of four questions|
There are no prerequisites for this module.
No restrictions apply.
Evans,M.K. (2003) Practical Business Forecasting,Oxford,Blackwell Publishing.
Hanke, J.E. and Wicherin, D.W. (2009) Business Forecasting, 9th edition, New Jersey, Pearson-Prentice Hall.
Armstrong, J.S. (2001) Principles of forecasting : A handbook for researchers and practitioners, Philadelphia, Springer.
Dancey, C.P. and Reidy, J. (2007) Statistics without maths for Pschychology, 4th edition, Harlow, Pearson education.
Kinnear, P.R. and Gray, C.D. (2004) SPSS made simple, East Sussex, Pschycology press.
International Journal of Forecasting
International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence
Journal of Forecasting
International Journal of Quality and Reliability Management
International Journal of Production and Operations Management
International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics
Industrial Management & Data Systems
Journal of business forecasting methods and systems
|Host Subject Group:||Business Logistics and Information Systems|
|User Name||Date Accessed||Action|